I hate to say I told you so

It is with a huge sigh that I write this:

I knew this would happen, I predicted it months ago. I will say it once and get it over with; I told you so.

What a disappointment the elections were this year. We have one of the worst presidents in history and the best contender we could come up with was Mitt Romney who was essentially the same on every level.

So America voted for the lesser of two evils once more, and evil prevailed. Some thought the lesser evil was Romney, and the others thought it was Obama. It was a near even split.

If the republican establishment hadn’t been so corrupt; Ron Paul would have been nominated and would have won by a landslide. Mitt Romney did nothing to energize the youth base, and indeed many senior conservatives shunned the youth vote altogether. I guess you get what you pay for.

Even if you add up all the Gary Johnson votes to the Mitt Romney votes, Obama still wins. So you can’t go blaming those of us who voted on true principles for that.

I could go on and on about how I told you so, and why Ron Paul would have been better, and how he would have won, but I’ve already mentioned all that in my previous articles. If you want; you can go look through my archives; its all there.

So where do we go from here?

I guess the silver lining is that the Tea Parties will still be around, and people will remain awake. One thing that concerned me about a potential Romney win was that many people would go back to sleep with a conservative as president.

I’m not going to rehash old debates and articles, all my viewpoints are out there for you to see already. What we need to do from here on out is to concentrate on local elections. We need to cut spending locally, we need to lower taxes, cut city regulations, we need to (dare I say it) stimulate our local economies from the bottom up. Forget President Obama, the heck with him, the heck with the democrats and even the corrupt republicans. Concentrate on local issues, and get your own personal finances in order.

Presidents don’t create jobs, the federal government is not all powerful, even if it claims to be. Are you going to let a bunch of looters take your guns? Take your rights? Take your voice? Hell no! Speak up, speak out, write blogs, express your viewpoints. Be proactive. Get out there and do something. Heck run for office yourself if you have the time and sense to do it.

Yes, OK, Obama is back in, but so what? America has not ended. It only ends if you end it, if you give up, if you give in. Who cares about the left vs the right? Concentrate on your own affairs, and work with like minded people at the local level.

Everything will be alright in the end if we learn to set aside our differences and work together in a constructive manner to build the future.

I might have said I told you so, but at least we can all learn from the last year and build from there. The future is ours for the building, and no Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is going to stop us!

Why we fight

I have nothing to gain from these posts except a chance at a future.

There are periods in history where the individual must stand up and fight, or perish with the collective. We are currently living in such a time.

I do not relish the idea of pounding out an article each day. Well; not every day. There are days, as in recently that I’d rather just wake up, take a shower, make a pot of coffee, cook breakfast and take the dog for a walk, and not think about anything but the fresh morning smell and the sun rising.

The reason I study politics and philosophy is because politics affects my life whether I like it or not, and philosophy is the key to unlocking the potential to change the status quo and deal with life in general.

In a political sense, I do not fall into the left/right paradigm. It makes no sense to me, and I only take part in it when there is advancement to be gained toward liberty and economic freedom.

With the current presidential contenders from the democrats and republicans there is a dead heat. They are both as bad as each other. I don’t buy the idea that Barack Obama is an undercover Marxist Muslim here to drive the country back into the stone age. Equally I wouldn’t call Mitt Romney a great businessman, or our lord and savior. At best, these two clowns are puppets who will do whatever their financial backers tell them to. Almost all of those in power have been bought and paid for, and it does not matter if they are all Marxists in disguise or if they are fascists only interested in a quick buck. They are all bad, and they need to go.

I’m not interested in term limits, because there are good congressmen out there such as Ron Paul who have served well for over two decades. Term limits would only give the wrong-doers a tighter time frame to commit their evil acts.

Our problems are far deeper than ‘the economy’, ‘benefits’, ‘medicare/medicaid’ and all the other ‘issues’ that have been trumped up by the past administrations and played like a pied piper for all of us to debate about fruitlessly and endlessly.

The United States has the most advanced document that enshrines human freedom ever conceived by human intelligence. The protection of this document and the enforcement of it by its citizens is paramount to the survival of this country and to the world.

Before the US constitution there was the Magna Carta, a document which was signed in my very own home town of Canterbury, England. For me; freedom and the ability to say and do as you please runs deep.

If we do not restrict the power of government from both sides of the US political isle soon, we will lose the ability to do so entirely.

For my generation, it really is liberty or death. We are not much interested in all the other ‘issues’. On our current path; which is nearing hyperinflation; we know that the economy will fail. We can deal with that, we can rebuild that. But if we lose freedom now, we will never again see it in our lifetime. Economies boom and bust, but can be rebuilt. But can a country which has lost its moral compass return to freedom so quickly? I doubt it.

No one in my age group who I have spoken to seriously about politics is going to vote for Romney or Obama. They are all Ron Paul supporters. We will all be voting for Gary Johnson in this election period, in support of the same ideals. If you are serious about defending liberty, and providing a chance at a future for my generation, I suggest you do the same.

It does not matter if we win the election or not. Mitt Romney is not going to beat Barack Obama. Romney is too stiff, too out of touch, and his rejection of the young and grassroots movements has already cost him the election.

Can we survive another four years of Obama? That is uncertain. Can we afford not to make a difference in this election? No. We must make a difference. The more people vote libertarian, the bigger the message will be to Washington to change its ways. Who knows, we might even win.

Freedom is not won overnight. It takes many battles, many of which will be lost, but over time the message will spread and the war will be won. But it is up to the individuals to stand up and make a difference. And that is why we fight.

Greed and Debt: The True Story of Mitt Romney

31 Aug 2012

How the GOP presidential candidate and his private equity firm staged an epic wealth grab, destroyed jobs – and stuck others with the bill.

mitt romney

The great criticism of Mitt Romney, from both sides of the aisle, has always been that he doesn’t stand for anything. He’s a flip-flopper, they say, a lightweight, a cardboard opportunist who’ll say anything to get elected.

The critics couldn’t be more wrong. Mitt Romney is no tissue-paper man. He’s closer to being a revolutionary, a backward-world version of Che or Trotsky, with tweezed nostrils instead of a beard, a half-Windsor instead of a leather jerkin. His legendary flip-flops aren’t the lies of a bumbling opportunist – they’re the confident prevarications of a man untroubled by misleading the nonbeliever in pursuit of a single, all-consuming goal. Romney has a vision, and he’s trying for something big: We’ve just been too slow to sort out what it is, just as we’ve been slow to grasp the roots of the radical economic changes that have swept the country in the last generation.

The incredible untold story of the 2012 election so far is that Romney’s run has been a shimmering pearl of perfect political hypocrisy, which he’s somehow managed to keep hidden, even with thousands of cameras following his every move. And the drama of this rhetorical high-wire act was ratcheted up even further when Romney chose his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin – like himself, a self-righteously anal, thin-lipped, Whitest Kids U Know penny pincher who’d be honored to tell Oliver Twist there’s no more soup left. By selecting Ryan, Romney, the hard-charging, chameleonic champion of a disgraced-yet-defiant Wall Street, officially succeeded in moving the battle lines in the 2012 presidential race.

Like John McCain four years before, Romney desperately needed a vice-presidential pick that would change the game. But where McCain bet on a combustive mix of clueless novelty and suburban sexual tension named Sarah Palin, Romney bet on an idea. He said as much when he unveiled his choice of Ryan, the author of a hair-raising budget-cutting plan best known for its willingness to slash the sacred cows of Medicare and Medicaid. “Paul Ryan has become an intellectual leader of the Republican Party,” Romney told frenzied Republican supporters in Norfolk, Virginia, standing before the reliably jingoistic backdrop of a floating warship. “He understands the fiscal challenges facing America: our exploding deficits and crushing debt.”

Debt, debt, debt. If the Republican Party had a James Carville, this is what he would have said to win Mitt over, in whatever late-night war room session led to the Ryan pick: “It’s the debt, stupid.” This is the way to defeat Barack Obama: to recast the race as a jeremiad against debt, something just about everybody who’s ever gotten a bill in the mail hates on a primal level.

Last May, in a much-touted speech in Iowa, Romney used language that was literally inflammatory to describe America’s federal borrowing. “A prairie fire of debt is sweeping across Iowa and our nation,” he declared. “Every day we fail to act, that fire gets closer to the homes and children we love.” Our collective debt is no ordinary problem: According to Mitt, it’s going to burn our children alive.

And this is where we get to the hypocrisy at the heart of Mitt Romney. Everyone knows that he is fantastically rich, having scored great success, the legend goes, as a “turnaround specialist,” a shrewd financial operator who revived moribund companies as a high-priced consultant for a storied Wall Street private equity firm. But what most voters don’t know is the way Mitt Romney actually made his fortune: by borrowing vast sums of money that other people were forced to pay back. This is the plain, stark reality that has somehow eluded America’s top political journalists for two consecutive presidential campaigns: Mitt Romney is one of the greatest and most irresponsible debt creators of all time. In the past few decades, in fact, Romney has piled more debt onto more unsuspecting companies, written more gigantic checks that other people have to cover, than perhaps all but a handful of people on planet Earth.

By making debt the centerpiece of his campaign, Romney was making a calculated bluff of historic dimensions – placing a massive all-in bet on the rank incompetence of the American press corps. The result has been a brilliant comedy: A man makes a $250 million fortune loading up companies with debt and then extracting million-dollar fees from those same companies, in exchange for the generous service of telling them who needs to be fired in order to finance the debt payments he saddled them with in the first place. That same man then runs for president riding an image of children roasting on flames of debt, choosing as his running mate perhaps the only politician in America more pompous and self-righteous on the subject of the evils of borrowed money than the candidate himself. If Romney pulls off this whopper, you’ll have to tip your hat to him: No one in history has ever successfully run for president riding this big of a lie. It’s almost enough to make you think he really is qualified for the White House.

The unlikeliness of Romney’s gambit isn’t simply a reflection of his own artlessly unapologetic mindset – it stands as an emblem for the resiliency of the entire sociopathic Wall Street set he represents. Four years ago, the Mitt Romneys of the world nearly destroyed the global economy with their greed, shortsightedness and – most notably – wildly irresponsible use of debt in pursuit of personal profit. The sight was so disgusting that people everywhere were ready to drop an H-bomb on Lower Manhattan and bayonet the survivors. But today that same insane greed ethos, that same belief in the lunatic pursuit of instant borrowed millions – it’s dusted itself off, it’s had a shave and a shoeshine, and it’s back out there running for president.

Mitt Romney, it turns out, is the perfect frontman for Wall Street’s greed revolution. He’s not a two-bit, shifty-eyed huckster like Lloyd Blankfein. He’s not a sighing, eye-rolling, arrogant jerkwad like Jamie Dimon. But Mitt believes the same things those guys believe: He’s been right with them on the front lines of the financialization revolution, a decades-long campaign in which the old, simple, let’s-make-stuff-and-sell-it manufacturing economy was replaced with a new, highly complex, let’s-take-stuff-and-trash-it financial economy. Instead of cars and airplanes, we built swaps, CDOs and other toxic financial products. Instead of building new companies from the ground up, we took out massive bank loans and used them to acquire existing firms, liquidating every asset in sight and leaving the target companies holding the note. The new borrow-and-conquer economy was morally sanctified by an almost religious faith in the grossly euphemistic concept of “creative destruction,” and amounted to a total abdication of collective responsibility by America’s rich, whose new thing was making assloads of money in ever-shorter campaigns of economic conquest, sending the proceeds offshore, and shrugging as the great towns and factories their parents and grandparents built were shuttered and boarded up, crushed by a true prairie fire of debt.

Mitt Romney – a man whose own father built cars and nurtured communities, and was one of the old-school industrial anachronisms pushed aside by the new generation’s wealth grab – has emerged now to sell this make-nothing, take-everything, screw-everyone ethos to the world. He’s Gordon Gekko, but a new and improved version, with better PR – and a bigger goal. A takeover artist all his life, Romney is now trying to take over America itself. And if his own history is any guide, we’ll all end up paying for the acquisition.

Willard “Mitt” Romney’s background in many ways suggests a man who was born to be president – disgustingly rich from birth, raised in prep schools, no early exposure to minorities outside of maids, a powerful daddy to clean up his missteps, and timely exemptions from military service. In Romney’s bio there are some eerie early-life similarities to other recent presidential figures. (Is America really ready for another Republican president who was a prep-school cheerleader?) And like other great presidential double-talkers such as Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, Romney has shown particular aptitude in the area of telling multiple factual versions of his own life story.

“I longed in many respects to actually be in Vietnam and be representing our country there,” he claimed years after the war. To a different audience, he said, “I was not planning on signing up for the military. It was not my desire to go off and serve in Vietnam.”

Like John F. Kennedy and George W. Bush, men whose way into power was smoothed by celebrity fathers but who rebelled against their parental legacy as mature politicians, Mitt Romney’s career has been both a tribute to and a repudiation of his famous father. George Romney in the 1950s became CEO of American Motors Corp., made a modest fortune betting on energy efficiency in an age of gas guzzlers and ended up serving as governor of the state of Michigan only two generations removed from the Romney clan’s tradition of polygamy. For Mitt, who grew up worshipping his tall, craggily handsome, politically moderate father, life was less rocky: Cranbrook prep school in suburban Detroit, followed by Stanford in the Sixties, a missionary term in which he spent two and a half years trying (as he said) to persuade the French to “give up your wine,” and Harvard Business School in the Seventies. Then, faced with making a career choice, Mitt chose an odd one: Already married and a father of two, he left Harvard and eschewed both politics and the law to enter the at-the-time unsexy world of financial consulting.

“When you get out of a place like Harvard, you can do anything – at least in the old days you could,” says a prominent corporate lawyer on Wall Street who is familiar with Romney’s career. “But he comes out, he not only has a Harvard Business School degree, he’s got a national pedigree with his name. He could have done anything – but what does he do? He says, ‘I’m going to spend my life loading up distressed companies with debt.’ ”

Mitt Romney Bain Capital

Romney started off at the Boston Consulting Group, where he showed an aptitude for crunching numbers and glad-handing clients. Then, in 1977, he joined a young entrepreneur named Bill Bain at a firm called Bain & Company, where he worked for six years before being handed the reins of a new firm-within-a-firm called Bain Capital.

In Romney’s version of the tale, Bain Capital – which evolved into what is today known as a private equity firm – specialized in turning around moribund companies (Romney even wrote a book called Turnaround that complements his other nauseatingly self-complimentary book, No Apology) and helped create the Staples office-supply chain. On the campaign trail, Romney relentlessly trades on his own self-perpetuated reputation as a kind of altruistic rescuer of failing enterprises, never missing an opportunity to use the word “help” or “helped” in his description of what he and Bain did for companies. He might, for instance, describe himself as having been “deeply involved in helping other businesses” or say he “helped create tens of thousands of jobs.”

The reality is that toward the middle of his career at Bain, Romney made a fateful strategic decision: He moved away from creating companies like Staples through venture capital schemes, and toward a business model that involved borrowing huge sums of money to take over existing firms, then extracting value from them by force. He decided, as he later put it, that “there’s a lot greater risk in a startup than there is in acquiring an existing company.” In the Eighties, when Romney made this move, this form of financial piracy became known as a leveraged buyout, and it achieved iconic status thanks to Gordon Gekko in Wall Street. Gekko’s business strategy was essentially identical to the Romney–Bain model, only Gekko called himself a “liberator” of companies instead of a “helper.”

Here’s how Romney would go about “liberating” a company: A private equity firm like Bain typically seeks out floundering businesses with good cash flows. It then puts down a relatively small amount of its own money and runs to a big bank like Goldman Sachs or Citigroup for the rest of the financing. (Most leveraged buyouts are financed with 60 to 90 percent borrowed cash.) The takeover firm then uses that borrowed money to buy a controlling stake in the target company, either with or without its consent. When an LBO is done without the consent of the target, it’s called a hostile takeover; such thrilling acts of corporate piracy were made legend in the Eighties, most notably the 1988 attack by notorious corporate raiders Kohlberg Kravis Roberts against RJR Nabisco, a deal memorialized in the book Barbarians at the Gate.

Romney and Bain avoided the hostile approach, preferring to secure the cooperation of their takeover targets by buying off a company’s management with lucrative bonuses. Once management is on board, the rest is just math. So if the target company is worth $500 million, Bain might put down $20 million of its own cash, then borrow $350 million from an investment bank to take over a controlling stake.

But here’s the catch. When Bain borrows all of that money from the bank, it’s the target company that ends up on the hook for all of the debt.

Now your troubled firm – let’s say you make tricycles in Alabama – has been taken over by a bunch of slick Wall Street dudes who kicked in as little as five percent as a down payment. So in addition to whatever problems you had before, Tricycle Inc. now owes Goldman or Citigroup $350 million. With all that new debt service to pay, the company’s bottom line is suddenly untenable: You almost have to start firing people immediately just to get your costs down to a manageable level.

“That interest,” says Lynn Turner, former chief accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission, “just sucks the profit out of the company.”

Fortunately, the geniuses at Bain who now run the place are there to help tell you whom to fire. And for the service it performs cutting your company’s costs to help you pay off the massive debt that it, Bain, saddled your company with in the first place, Bain naturally charges a management fee, typically millions of dollars a year. So Tricycle Inc. now has two gigantic new burdens it never had before Bain Capital stepped into the picture: tens of millions in annual debt service, and millions more in “management fees.” Since the initial acquisition of Tricycle Inc. was probably greased by promising the company’s upper management lucrative bonuses, all that pain inevitably comes out of just one place: the benefits and payroll of the hourly workforce.

Once all that debt is added, one of two things can happen. The company can fire workers and slash benefits to pay off all its new obligations to Goldman Sachs and Bain, leaving it ripe to be resold by Bain at a huge profit. Or it can go bankrupt – this happens after about seven percent of all private equity buyouts – leaving behind one or more shuttered factory towns. Either way, Bain wins. By power-sucking cash value from even the most rapidly dying firms, private equity raiders like Bain almost always get their cash out before a target goes belly up.

This business model wasn’t really “helping,” of course – and it wasn’t new. Fans of mob movies will recognize what’s known as the “bust-out,” in which a gangster takes over a restaurant or sporting goods store and then monetizes his investment by running up giant debts on the company’s credit line. (Think Paulie buying all those cases of Cutty Sark in Goodfellas.) When the note comes due, the mobster simply torches the restaurant and collects the insurance money. Reduced to their most basic level, the leveraged buyouts engineered by Romney followed exactly the same business model. “It’s the bust-out,” one Wall Street trader says with a laugh. “That’s all it is.”

Private equity firms aren’t necessarily evil by definition. There are many stories of successful turnarounds fueled by private equity, often involving multiple floundering businesses that are rolled into a single entity, eliminating duplicative overhead. Experian, the giant credit-rating tyrant, was acquired by Bain in the Nineties and went on to become an industry leader.

But there’s a key difference between private equity firms and the businesses that were America’s original industrial cornerstones, like the elder Romney’s AMC. Everyone had a stake in the success of those old businesses, which spread prosperity by putting people to work. But even private equity’s most enthusiastic adherents have difficulty explaining its benefit to society. Marc Wolpow, a former Bain colleague of Romney’s, told reporters during Mitt’s first Senate run that Romney erred in trying to sell his business as good for everyone. “I believed he was making a mistake by framing himself as a job creator,” said Wolpow. “That was not his or Bain’s or the industry’s primary objective. The objective of the LBO business is maximizing returns for investors.” When it comes to private equity, American workers – not to mention their families and communities – simply don’t enter into the equation.

Take a typical Bain transaction involving an Indiana-based company called American Pad and Paper. Bain bought Ampad in 1992 for just $5 million, financing the rest of the deal with borrowed cash. Within three years, Ampad was paying $60 million in annual debt payments, plus an additional $7 million in management fees. A year later, Bain led Ampad to go public, cashed out about $50 million in stock for itself and its investors, charged the firm $2 million for arranging the IPO and pocketed another $5 million in “management” fees. Ampad wound up going bankrupt, and hundreds of workers lost their jobs, but Bain and Romney weren’t crying: They’d made more than $100 million on a $5 million investment.

To recap: Romney, who has compared the devilish federal debt to a “nightmare” home mortgage that is “adjustable, no-money down and assigned to our children,” took over Ampad with essentially no money down, saddled the firm with a nightmare debt and assigned the crushing interest payments not to Bain but to the children of Ampad’s workers, who would be left holding the note long after Romney fled the scene. The mortgage analogy is so obvious, in fact, that even Romney himself has made it. He once described Bain’s debt-fueled strategy as “using the equivalent of a mortgage to leverage up our investment.”

Romney has always kept his distance from the real-life consequences of his profiteering. At one point during Bain’s looting of Ampad, a worker named Randy Johnson sent a handwritten letter to Romney, asking him to intervene to save an Ampad factory in Marion, Indiana. In a sterling demonstration of manliness and willingness to face a difficult conversation, Romney, who had just lost his race for the Senate in Massachusetts, wrote Johnson that he was “sorry,” but his lawyers had advised him not to get involved. (So much for the candidate who insists that his way is always to “fight to save every job.”)

This is typical Romney, who consistently adopts a public posture of having been above the fray, with no blood on his hands from any of the deals he personally engineered. “I never actually ran one of our investments,” he says in Turnaround. “That was left to management.”

In reality, though, Romney was unquestionably the decider at Bain. “I insisted on having almost dictatorial powers,” he bragged years after the Ampad deal. Over the years, colleagues would anonymously whisper stories about Mitt the Boss to the press, describing him as cunning, manipulative and a little bit nuts, with “an ability to identify people’s insecurities and exploit them for his own benefit.” One former Bain employee said that Romney would screw around with bonuses in small amounts, just to mess with people: He would give $3 million to one, $3.1 million to another and $2.9 million to a third, just to keep those below him on edge.

The private equity business in the early Nineties was dominated by a handful of takeover firms, from the spooky and politically connected Carlyle Group (a favorite subject of conspiracy-theory lit, with its connections to right-wingers like Donald Rumsfeld and George H.W. Bush) to the equally spooky Democrat-leaning assholes at the Blackstone Group. But even among such a colorful cast of characters, Bain had a reputation on Wall Street for secrecy and extreme weirdness – “the KGB of consulting.” Its employees, known for their Mormonish uniform of white shirts and red power ties, were dubbed “Bainies” by other Wall Streeters, a rip on the fanatical “Moonies.” The firm earned the name thanks to its idiotically adolescent Spy Kids culture, in which these glorified slumlords used code names, didn’t carry business cards and even sang “company songs” to boost morale.

The seemingly religious flavor of Bain’s culture smacks of the generally cultish ethos on Wall Street, in which all sorts of ethically questionable behaviors are justified as being necessary in service of the church of making money. Romney belongs to a true-believer subset within that cult, with a revolutionary’s faith in the wisdom of the pure free market, in which destroying companies and sucking the value out of them for personal gain is part of the greater good, and governments should “stand aside and allow the creative destruction inherent in the free economy.”

That cultlike zeal helps explains why Romney takes such a curiously unapologetic approach to his own flip-flopping. His infamous changes of stance are not little wispy ideological alterations of a few degrees here or there – they are perfect and absolute mathematical reversals, as in “I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country” and “I am firmly pro-life.” Yet unlike other politicians, who at least recognize that saying completely contradictory things presents a political problem, Romney seems genuinely puzzled by the public’s insistence that he be consistent. “I’m not going to apologize for having changed my mind,” he likes to say. It’s an attitude that recalls the standard defense offered by Wall Street in the wake of some of its most recent and notorious crimes: Goldman Sachs excused its lying to clients, for example, by insisting that its customers are “sophisticated investors” who should expect to be lied to. “Last time I checked,” former Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack sneered after the same scandal, “we were in business to be profitable.”

Within the cult of Wall Street that forged Mitt Romney, making money justifies any behavior, no matter how venal. The look on Romney’s face when he refuses to apologize says it all: Hey, I’m trying to win an election. We’re all grown-ups here. After the Ampad deal, Romney expressed contempt for critics who lived in “fantasy land.” “This is the real world,” he said, “and in the real world there is nothing wrong with companies trying to compete, trying to stay alive, trying to make money.”

In the old days, making money required sharing the wealth: with assembly-line workers, with middle management, with schools and communities, with investors. Even the Gilded Age robber barons, despite their unapologetic efforts to keep workers from getting any rights at all, built America in spite of themselves, erecting railroads and oil wells and telegraph wires. And from the time the monopolists were reined in with antitrust laws through the days when men like Mitt Romney’s dad exited center stage in our economy, the American social contract was pretty consistent: The rich got to stay rich, often filthy rich, but they paid taxes and a living wage and everyone else rose at least a little bit along with them.

But under Romney’s business model, leveraging other people’s debt means you can carve out big profits for yourself and leave everyone else holding the bag. Despite what Romney claims, the rate of return he provided for Bain’s investors over the years wasn’t all that great. Romney biographer and Wall Street Journal reporter Brett Arends, who analyzed Bain’s performance between 1984 and 1998, concludes that the firm’s returns were likely less than 30 percent per year, which happened to track more or less with the stock market’s average during that time. “That’s how much money you could have made by issuing company bonds and then spending the money picking stocks out of the paper at random,” Arends observes. So for all the destruction Romney wreaked on Middle America in the name of “trying to make money,” investors could have just plunked their money into traditional stocks and gotten pretty much the same returns.

The only ones who profited in a big way from all the job-killing debt that Romney leveraged were Mitt and his buddies at Bain, along with Wall Street firms like Goldman and Citigroup. Barry Ritholtz, author of Bailout Nation, says the criticisms of Bain about layoffs and meanness miss a more important point, which is that the firm’s profit-producing record is absurdly mediocre, especially when set against all the trouble and pain its business model causes. “Bain’s fundamental flaw, at least according to the math,” Ritholtz writes, “is that they took lots of risk, use immense leverage and charged enormous fees, for performance that was more or less the same as [stock] indexing.”

‘I’m not a Romney guy, because I’m not a Bain guy,” says Lenny Patnode, in an Irish pub in the factory town of Pittsfield, Massachusetts. “But I’m not an Obama guy, either. Just so you know.”

I feel bad even asking Patnode about Romney. Big and burly, with white hair and the thick forearms of a man who’s stocked a shelf or two in his lifetime, he seems to belong to an era before things like leveraged debt even existed. For 38 years, Patnode worked for a company called KB Toys in Pittsfield. He was the longest-serving employee in the company’s history, opening some of the firm’s first mall stores, making some of its canniest product buys (“Tamagotchi pets,” he says, beaming, “and Tech-Decks, too”), traveling all over the world to help build an empire that at its peak included 1,300 stores. “There were times when I worked seven days a week, 16 hours a day,” he says. “I opened three stores in two months once.”

Then in 2000, right before Romney gave up his ownership stake in Bain Capital, the firm targeted KB Toys. The debacle that followed serves as a prime example of the conflict between the old model of American business, built from the ground up with sweat and industry know-how, and the new globalist model, the Romney model, which uses leverage as a weapon of high-speed conquest.

In a typical private-equity fragging, Bain put up a mere $18 million to acquire KB Toys and got big banks to finance the remaining $302 million it needed. Less than a year and a half after the purchase, Bain decided to give itself a gift known as a “dividend recapitalization.” The firm induced KB Toys to redeem $121 million in stock and take out more than $66 million in bank loans – $83 million of which went directly into the pockets of Bain’s owners and investors, including Romney. “The dividend recap is like borrowing someone else’s credit card to take out a cash advance, and then leaving them to pay it off,” says Heather Slavkin Corzo, who monitors private equity takeovers as the senior legal policy adviser for the AFL-CIO.

Bain ended up earning a return of at least 370 percent on the deal, while KB Toys fell into bankruptcy, saddled with millions in debt. KB’s former parent company, Big Lots, alleged in bankruptcy court that Bain’s “unjustified” return on the dividend recap was actually “900 percent in a mere 16 months.” Patnode, by contrast, was fired in December 2008, after almost four decades on the job. Like other employees, he didn’t get a single day’s severance.

Mitt Romney Bain Capital

I ask Slavkin Corzo what Bain’s justification was for the giant dividend recapitalization in the KB Toys acquisition. The question throws her, as though she’s surprised anyone would ask for a reason a company like Bain would loot a firm like KB Toys. “It wasn’t like, ‘Yay, we did a good job, we get a dividend,’” she says with a laugh. “It was like, ‘We can do this, so we will.’ ”

At the time of the KB Toys deal, Romney was a Bain investor and owner, making him a mere beneficiary of the raping and pillaging, rather than its direct organizer. Moreover, KB’s demise was hastened by a host of genuine market forces, including competition from video games and cellphones. But there’s absolutely no way to look at what Bain did at KB and see anything but a cash grab – one that followed the business model laid out by Romney. Rather than cutting costs and tightening belts, Bain added $300 million in debt to the firm’s bottom line while taking out more than $120 million in cash – an outright looting that creditors later described in a lawsuit as “breaking open the piggy bank.” What’s more, Bain smoothed the deal in typical fashion by giving huge bonuses to the company’s top managers as the firm headed toward bankruptcy. CEO Michael Glazer got an incredible $18.4 million, while CFO Robert Feldman received $4.8 million and senior VP Thomas Alfonsi took home $3.3 million.

And what did Bain bring to the table in return for its massive, outsize payout? KB Toys had built a small empire by targeting middle-class buyers with value-priced products. It succeeded mainly because the firm’s leaders had a great instinct for what they were making and selling. These were people who had been in the specialty toy business since 1922; collectively, they had millions of man-hours of knowledge about how the industry works and how toy customers behave. KB’s president in the Eighties, the late Saul Rubenstein, used to carry around a giant computer printout of the company’s inventory, and would fall asleep reading it on the weekends, the pages clasped to his chest. “He knew the name and number of all those toys,” his widow, Shirley, says proudly. “He loved toys.”

Bain’s experience in the toy industry, by contrast, was precisely bupkus. They didn’t know a damn thing about the business they had taken over – and they never cared to learn. The firm’s entire contribution was $18 million in cash and a huge mound of borrowed money that gave it the power to pull the levers. “The people who came in after – they were never toy people,” says Shirley Rubenstein. To make matters worse, former employees say, Bain deluged them with requests for paperwork and reports, forcing them to worry more about the whims of their new bosses than the demands of their customers. “We took our eye off the ball,” Patnode says. “And if you take your eye off the ball, you strike out.”

In the end, Bain never bothered to come up with a plan for how KB Toys could meet the 21st-century challenges of video games and cellphone gadgets that were the company’s ostensible downfall. And that’s where Romney’s self-touted reputation as a turnaround specialist is a myth. In the Bain model, the actual turnaround isn’t necessary. It’s just a cover story. It’s nice for the private equity firm if it happens, because it makes the acquired company more attractive for resale or an IPO. But it’s mostly irrelevant to the success of the takeover model, where huge cash returns are extracted whether the captured firm thrives or not.

“The thing about it is, nobody gets hurt,” says Patnode. “Except the people who worked here.”

Romney was a prime mover in the radical social and political transformation that was cooked up by Wall Street beginning in the 1980s. In fact, you can trace the whole history of the modern age of financialization just by following the highly specific corner of the economic universe inhabited by the leveraged buyout business, where Mitt Romney thrived. If you look at the number of leveraged buyouts dating back two or three decades, you see a clear pattern: Takeovers rose sharply with each of Wall Street’s great easy-money schemes, then plummeted just as sharply after each of those scams crashed and burned, leaving the rest of us with the bill.

In the Eighties, when Romney and Bain were cutting their teeth in the LBO business, the primary magic trick involved the junk bonds pioneered by convicted felon Mike Milken, which allowed firms like Bain to find easy financing for takeovers by using wildly overpriced distressed corporate bonds as collateral. Junk bonds gave the Gordon Gekkos of the world sudden primacy over old-school industrial titans like the Fords and the Rockefellers: For the first time, the ability to make deals became more valuable than the ability to make stuff, and the ability to instantly engineer billions in illusory financing trumped the comparatively slow process of making and selling products for gradual returns.

Romney was right in the middle of this radical change. In fact, according to The Boston Globe – whose in-depth reporting on Romney and Bain has spanned three decades – one of Romney’s first LBO deals, and one of his most profitable, involved Mike Milken himself. Bain put down $10 million in cash, got $300 million in financing from Milken and bought a pair of department-store chains, Bealls Brothers and Palais Royal. In what should by now be a familiar outcome, the two chains – which Bain merged into a single outfit called Stage Stores – filed for bankruptcy protection in 2000 under the weight of more than $444 million in debt. As always, Bain took no responsibility for the company’s demise. (If you search the public record, you will not find a single instance of Mitt Romney taking responsibility for a company’s failure.) Instead, Bain blamed Stage’s collapse on “operating problems” that took place three years after Bain cashed out, finishing with a $175 million return on its initial investment of $10 million.

But here’s the interesting twist: Romney made the Bealls-Palais deal just as the federal government was launching charges of massive manipulation and insider trading against Milken and his firm, Drexel Burnham Lambert. After what must have been a lengthy and agonizing period of moral soul-searching, however, Romney decided not to kill the deal, despite its shady financing. “We did not say, ‘Oh, my goodness, Drexel has been accused of something, not been found guilty,’ ” Romney told reporters years after the deal. “Should we basically stop the transaction and blow the whole thing up?”

In an even more incredible disregard for basic morality, Romney forged ahead with the deal even though Milken’s case was being heard by a federal district judge named Milton Pollack, whose wife, Moselle, happened to be the chairwoman of none other than Palais Royal. In short, one of Romney’s first takeover deals was financed by dirty money – and one of the corporate chiefs about to receive a big payout from Bain was married to the judge hearing the case. Although the SEC took no formal action, it issued a sharp criticism, complaining that Romney was allowing Milken’s money to have a possible influence over “the administration of justice.”

After Milken and his junk bond scheme crashed in the late Eighties, Romney and other takeover artists moved on to Wall Street’s next get-rich-quick scheme: the tech-Internet stock bubble. By 1997 and 1998, there were nearly $400 billion in leveraged buyouts a year, as easy money once again gave these financial piracy firms the ammunition they needed to raid companies like KB Toys. Firms like Bain even have a colorful pirate name for the pools of takeover money they raise in advance from pension funds, university endowments and other institutional investors. “They call it dry powder,” says Slavkin Corzo, the union adviser.

After the Internet bubble burst and private equity started cashing in on Wall Street’s mortgage scam, LBO deals ballooned to almost $900 billion in 2006. Once again, storied companies with long histories and deep regional ties were descended upon by Bain and other pirates, saddled with hundreds of millions in debt, forced to pay huge management fees and “dividend recapitalizations,” and ridden into bankruptcy amid waves of layoffs. Established firms like Del Monte, Hertz and Dollar General were all taken over in a “prairie fire of debt” – one even more destructive than the government borrowing that Romney is flogging on the campaign trial. When Hertz was conquered in 2005 by a trio of private equity firms, including the Carlyle Group, the interest payments on its debt soared by a monstrous 80 percent, forcing the company to eliminate a third of its 32,000 jobs.

In 2010, a year after the last round of Hertz layoffs, Carlyle teamed up with Bain to take $500 million out of another takeover target: the parent company of Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin-Robbins. Dunkin’ had to take out a $1.25 billion loan to pay a dividend to its new private equity owners. So think of this the next time you go to Dunkin’ Donuts for a cup of coffee: A small cup of joe costs about $1.69 in most outlets, which means that for years to come, Dunkin’ Donuts will have to sell about 2,011,834 small coffees every month – about $3.4 million – just to meet the interest payments on the loan it took out to pay Bain and Carlyle their little one-time dividend. And that doesn’t include the principal on the loan, or the additional millions in debt that Dunkin’ has to pay every year to get out from under the $2.4 billion in debt it’s now saddled with after having the privilege of being taken over – with borrowed money – by the firm that Romney built.

If you haven’t heard much about how takeover deals like Dunkin’ and KB Toys work, that’s because Mitt Romney and his private equity brethren don’t want you to. The new owners of American industry are the polar opposites of the Milton Hersheys and Andrew Carnegies who built this country, commercial titans who longed to leave visible legacies of their accomplishments, erecting hospitals and schools and libraries, sometimes leaving behind thriving towns that bore their names.

The men of the private equity generation want no such thing. “We try to hide religiously,” explained Steven Feinberg, the CEO of a takeover firm called Cerberus Capital Management that recently drove one of its targets into bankruptcy after saddling it with $2.3 billion in debt. “If anyone at Cerberus has his picture in the paper and a picture of his apartment, we will do more than fire that person,” Feinberg told shareholders in 2007. “We will kill him. The jail sentence will be worth it.”

Which brings us to another aspect of Romney’s business career that has largely been hidden from voters: His personal fortune would not have been possible without the direct assistance of the U.S. government. The taxpayer-funded subsidies that Romney has received go well beyond the humdrum, backdoor, welfare-sucking that all supposedly self-made free marketeers inevitably indulge in. Not that Romney hasn’t done just fine at milking the government when it suits his purposes, the most obvious instance being the incredible $1.5 billion in aid he siphoned out of the U.S. Treasury as head of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake – a sum greater than all federal spending for the previous seven U.S. Olympic games combined. Romney, the supposed fiscal conservative, blew through an average of $625,000 in taxpayer money per athlete – an astounding increase of 5,582 percent over the $11,000 average at the 1984 games in Los Angeles. In 1993, right as he was preparing to run for the Senate, Romney also engineered a government deal worth at least $10 million for Bain’s consulting firm, when it was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. (See “The Federal Bailout That Saved Romney”)

But the way Romney most directly owes his success to the government is through the structure of the tax code. The entire business of leveraged buyouts wouldn’t be possible without a provision in the federal code that allows companies like Bain to deduct the interest on the debt they use to acquire and loot their targets. This is the same universally beloved tax deduction you can use to write off your mortgage interest payments, so tampering with it is considered political suicide – it’s been called the “third rail of tax reform.” So the Romney who routinely rails against the national debt as some kind of child-killing “mortgage” is the same man who spent decades exploiting a tax deduction specifically designed for mortgage holders in order to bilk every dollar he could out of U.S. businesses before burning them to the ground.

Because minus that tax break, Romney’s debt-based takeovers would have been unsustainably expensive. Before Lynn Turner became chief accountant of the SEC, where he reviewed filings on takeover deals, he crunched the numbers on leveraged buyouts as an accountant at a Big Four auditing firm. “In the majority of these deals,” Turner says, “the tax deduction has a big enough impact on the bottom line that the takeover wouldn’t work without it.”

Thanks to the tax deduction, in other words, the government actually incentivizes the kind of leverage-based takeovers that Romney built his fortune on. Romney the businessman built his career on two things that Romney the candidate decries: massive debt and dumb federal giveaways. “I don’t know what Romney would be doing but for debt and its tax-advantaged position in the tax code,” says a prominent Wall Street lawyer, “but he wouldn’t be fabulously wealthy.”

Adding to the hypocrisy, the money that Romney personally pocketed on Bain’s takeover deals was usually taxed not as income, but either as capital gains or as “carried interest,” both of which are capped at a maximum rate of 15 percent. In addition, reporters have uncovered plenty of evidence that Romney takes full advantage of offshore tax havens: He has an interest in at least 12 Bain funds, worth a total of $30 million, that are based in the Cayman Islands; he has reportedly used a squirrelly tax shelter known as a “blocker corporation” that cheats taxpayers out of some $100 million a year; and his wife, Ann, had a Swiss bank account worth $3 million. As a private equity pirate, Romney pays less than half the tax rate of most American executives – less, even, than teachers, firefighters, cops and nurses. Asked about the fact that he paid a tax rate of only 13.9 percent on income of $21.7 million in 2010, Romney responded testily that the massive windfall he enjoys from exploiting the tax code is “entirely legal and fair.”

Essentially, Romney got rich in a business that couldn’t exist without a perverse tax break, and he got to keep double his earnings because of another loophole – a pair of bureaucratic accidents that have not only teamed up to threaten us with a Mitt Romney presidency but that make future Romneys far more likely. “Those two tax rules distort the economics of private equity investments, making them much more lucrative than they should be,” says Rebecca Wilkins, senior counsel at the Center for Tax Justice. “So we get more of that activity than the market would support on its own.”

Listen to Mitt Romney speak, and see if you can notice what’s missing. This is a man who grew up in Michigan, went to college in California, walked door to door through the streets of southern France as a missionary and was a governor of Massachusetts, the home of perhaps the most instantly recognizable, heavily accented English this side of Edinburgh. Yet not a trace of any of these places is detectable in Romney’s diction. None of the people in any of those places bled in and left a mark on the man.

Romney is a man from nowhere. In his post-regional attitude, he shares something with his campaign opponent, Barack Obama, whose background is a similarly jumbled pastiche of regionally nonspecific non-identity. But in the way he bounced around the world as a half-orphaned child, Obama was more like an involuntary passenger in the demographic revolution reshaping the planet than one of its leaders.

Romney, on the other hand, is a perfect representative of one side of the ominous cultural divide that will define the next generation, not just here in America but all over the world. Forget about the Southern strategy, blue versus red, swing states and swing voters – all of those political clichés are quaint relics of a less threatening era that is now part of our past, or soon will be. The next conflict defining us all is much more unnerving.

That conflict will be between people who live somewhere, and people who live nowhere. It will be between people who consider themselves citizens of actual countries, to which they have patriotic allegiance, and people to whom nations are meaningless, who live in a stateless global archipelago of privilege – a collection of private schools, tax havens and gated residential communities with little or no connection to the outside world.

Mitt Romney isn’t blue or red. He’s an archipelago man. That’s a big reason that voters have been slow to warm up to him. From LBJ to Bill Clinton to George W. Bush to Sarah Palin, Americans like their politicians to sound like they’re from somewhere, to be human symbols of our love affair with small towns, the girl next door, the little pink houses of Mellencamp myth. Most of those mythical American towns grew up around factories – think chocolate bars from Hershey, baseball bats from Louisville, cereals from Battle Creek. Deep down, what scares voters in both parties the most is the thought that these unique and vital places are vanishing or eroding – overrun by immigrants or the forces of globalism or both, with giant Walmarts descending like spaceships to replace the corner grocer, the family barber and the local hardware store, and 1,000 cable channels replacing the school dance and the gossip at the local diner.

Obama ran on “change” in 2008, but Mitt Romney represents a far more real and seismic shift in the American landscape. Romney is the frontman and apostle of an economic revolution, in which transactions are manufactured instead of products, wealth is generated without accompanying prosperity, and Cayman Islands partnerships are lovingly erected and nurtured while American communities fall apart. The entire purpose of the business model that Romney helped pioneer is to move money into the archipelago from the places outside it, using massive amounts of taxpayer-subsidized debt to enrich a handful of billionaires. It’s a vision of society that’s crazy, vicious and almost unbelievably selfish, yet it’s running for president, and it has a chance of winning. Perhaps that change is coming whether we like it or not. Perhaps Mitt Romney is the best man to manage the transition. But it seems a little early to vote for that kind of wholesale surrender.

Source: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capital-20120829

Shrugging

Before I moved here, I saved every penny I could. I didn’t take the bus home, or buy a car. I walked 4 miles home every day. Part of my reason was because I was upset at how expensive the government had made buying a car and getting a license and insurance. I didn’t want to be ‘nudged’ into taking public transport. My small paychecks, were already taxed higher than I thought necessary. In a way I ‘shrugged‘ from the world, in the best way that I could. I managed to save up a substantial amount of money, while working hard at my simple job, and providing very little in tax revenue to the overbearing government.

Whenever someone tells me something is too hard, or they can’t save enough money, I ask them why they don’t give up some of their luxuries. You can buy anything you want, as equally as you can create anything you want, if you put your mind to it.

With the rising cost of gasoline and the costs of maintaining my vehicles. The thought has crossed my mind about getting out of distribution and just working at a store close to my house. I could simply walk there, and the transportation savings would offset the pay decrease. You see, the government thinks it can simply grow taxes at a never ending rate, and not expect repercussions. Not only does an economy slow down during tax rises and red tape increases, but productive people like myself begin to shrug, because we do not see the point in working if most of it is immediately taken away from us. During ‘the fountainhead‘ Howard Roark goes to the granite quarry for similar reasons. I refuse to lend my time, body and mind to looters. My mind, body and time is my own. So long as I can keep a roof over my head, and food in my wife and I’s stomachs, and keep her happy, I really don’t need anything else. I’ve taken her on trips which spare no expense,  but we’ve also been on cheap camping trips and had just as much fun.

It is not up to governments and corrupt corporations to set the tone for this nation or to leech us at every turn. There are things we can do to limit their looting capabilities, and get the most out of life for ourselves.

We really do have ‘people power’ and it starts with the individual. If you personally make a commitment to cut back your spending, and enjoy the fruits of life. You will starve out the looters, while enriching your own life.

Other nations are getting ready for this. The dollar is collapsing, and other nations are creating bomb shelters, and storing up gold. They are getting ready for the fall out. Are you ready? Atlas is shrugging, and time is running out to flush out the looters.

I believe in happiness, in creating a world for myself as I see fit, without pulling the rug out from under others, without leeching off their success. I will build my own success, but I will not fund others dreams of sacrificing me as a victim so that they may profit from my knowledge and hard work.

Anything is possible if you put your mind to it, you can save and buy anything you want, you can work your way toward any job or position in life, and you can pull the rug out from under the looters by stepping down and enjoying the simplicities of life, while fighting the leeches with your mind and reasoning.

I believe this will be the first country in history to turn away from self destruction. But only if enough people stand up and speak out, and stop funding the looters.

A glimmer of hope

Cincinnati Mall, almost completely decimated and flat-lining, is slowly starting to beat back to life.

My wife and I dated, by my visiting her twice a year. I would fly out for two weeks over Christmas, and two months over summer. Since we were so young, the only real dates we had were when her mother would drop us off at the mall for the afternoon during these special times of year.

One of the malls that we visited the most was Cincinnati Mall (formally Cincinnati Mills or Forest Fair Mall). The first time I visited it, was at the very end of 2004 shortly after it had re-opened. The place was packed, every space was open for business and the place was bustling. Over the next couple of years it became our favorite place to date on my visits.

During it’s height (for us anyway, I’ve heard its been through several booms and busts) it had a Bigg’s grocery store, a showcase cinema, 12 varieties of food companies at the food court, and in excess of one hundred stores including many high street brands. At its fall last year there were barely ten stores left and only two food companies remained open (barely).

What was once a dating haven for us, with everything you could imagine, from seeing a movie, eating out, doing some clothes shopping, and grabbing a couple things at the supermarket all in once place, had become completely decimated; a true sign of the failing economy.

It was heartbreaking for me to see the place in such a decline. I’ve heard it’s the second largest mall in America, and I’ve been to the largest (Mall of America) when I had a stop over flight in Minnesota one Christmas. To see such a large building, a place where I dated my wife, and the first mall I had ever been to, to be in such a sorry and dead state really pulled at the heartstrings. We have so many good memories there, and I didn’t like seeing it in such decline.

The one reason we still go there is because of the Danberry Dollar saver cinema. For $3 a piece we can watch the latest movies (albeit a month or two behind the big cinemas) for a reasonable rate, and its not far away for us to drive.

When we walked out of the cinema Friday night, we saw the two die hard food companies still serving meals, but something was different. Recently Arcade Legacy had moved in and was pulling the local gamers in, but in addition to that, today there was some loud music playing, and next door there was a venue being set up for an international ‘dance off’. Now that’s not particularly my style, but seeing as there is so much free space at the mall, it made sense to host it there. I smiled as we walked past and my wife picked up a leaflet for the event.

As we ascended the steps and walked up to the second floor, I saw some light breaking through a crack in the black plastic wrap covering one of the many vacant stores. This store used to be Bigg’s, and I was intrigued to see light breaking through from it. As we approached it we noticed a sign had been put up with designs for a huge indoor sports complex. After looking at each other in amazement and heading toward the doors and back to our car, I felt a sense of happiness swell over me as I thought about how the old mall was slowly but surely starting to beat back into life.

Many people fear the economy collapsing and what it will do to them and their families. I say let it collapse. If it was not built well to begin with, let it fall, but don’t let corrupt bureaucrats slowly and agonizingly pull it apart as they fumble their grimy fingers through it.

Anything can be rebuilt, and anything can be built better than before.

It is quite possible that Cincinnati Mall will come back stronger than ever. It may well end up being Cincinnati’s greatest entertainment area in years to come. All it takes is a little imagination, determination and skill.

Without government coercion, and with free markets and free spirits, we can create anything.

The economy may already be flat lining and the surgery isn’t working, but slowly but surely it will beat back into life. Sometimes you have to let a body die, so that it can be reborn again.

Resource Wars

I think the global warming myth is a sedate way of saying that we are out of oil and need to find alternative energies, after all, if politicians admitted that we are almost out of easily accessible and cheap oil, prices would skyrocket and economies would tank.

Why are US politicians so friendly with Israel, but not with other middle eastern states Is it because of oil?

We are currently in a time of peak oil. The US military actually published a report about this:

US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

The US military has warned that surplus oilproduction capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: “While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.”

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with “an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments.”

The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant threat to a more immediate risk.

The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally about this upbeat stance.

Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. BP chief executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little chance of crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned in America because the US military like to have local supplies rather than rely on the politically unstable Middle East.

But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview with French newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama administration, admitted that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.

Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the American military moves the debate on.

“It’s surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the information is based on,” he said.

“The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy) has been saying for years that Peak Oil was “decades away”. In light of the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still confident of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?”

The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. “One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest,” it points out.

For over 100 years western countries, particularly Britain and America, have had major interests in the middle east. This three part documentary, explains our obsession with oil in the Middle East over the last century:

But now we are running out of oil:

Peak Oil would explain our current foreign policy in the middle east, and the rising prices at home at the pump. The sad part is, is that we’ve known about peak oil for years:

So should we not now be focusing on new technologies?

There are two technologies which could have a massive impact against crude oil, and become a viable substitute for it in the future. These two forms of fuel are Algae Oil:

And Hydrogen:

So along with bad foreign policy, bad home policy, and all the silly controlling and nudging that goes on from congress. Should we not be concentrating on bringing our troops home, drilling at home, constructing the pipeline from Canada, and developing our own American resources? Resources that we could then sell to the rest of the world.

Think about it, if we develop hydrogen, and algae oil, and once again became the world’s largest oil and energy producer. Do you really think we’d need to have any influence in the middle east at all? Not only would our economy boom once more and return jobs to the US. We could also once again become the heart of freedom in the world and restore our republic. The US with all its own military might would still be the most powerful country in the world, but it would no longer have to strike fear into other nations as an imperial entity.

Ron Paul has the best foreign policy

This posting is for those who believe in fiscal responsibility, who believe in the Republic of the United States, but who are on the fence about voting for Ron Paul.

In my previous posts I have told you what I think about all the other candidates, and I have told you why I like Ron Paul, and only him. So here goes:

For all those who think that Ron Paul has a bad foreign policy. I say: remember what diplomacy is and go read ‘The Art of War’.

Diplomacy (from Latin diploma, meaning an official document, which in turn derives from the Greek δίπλωμα, meaning a folded paper/document) is the art and practice of conducting negotiations between representatives of groups or states. It usually refers to international diplomacy, the conduct of international relations[1] through the intercession of professional diplomats with regard to issues of peace-making, trade, war, economics, culture, environment and human rights. International treaties are usually negotiated by diplomats prior to endorsement by national politicians. In an informal or social sense, diplomacy is the employment of tact to gain strategic advantage or to find mutually acceptable solutions to a common challenge, one set of tools being the phrasing of statements in a non-confrontational, or polite manner.

Even in a simple game of checkers, if you expose too many of your pieces, the opponent can easily take your pieces and win. During the war of independence, the colonialists were always on the run, and Britain won many battles, and yet the colonialists won. Why is that?

Humans the world over have a desire to be free, they do not like to be told what to do, they certainly don’t like to be forced into submission.

All the countries that we are currently bombing despise us for doing so, and we are creating more and more terrorists by agitating the neighboring countries.

Here is a history on Iran:

Ron Paul accurately claims that 50% of all terrorists come from Saudi Arabia.

For those who say that Iran is a threat to us; how? How will they ever get anywhere near us? Their military is tiny compared to ours. So what if they’re developing nuclear weapons? Our technology is far superior to theirs. Do you not think we could deflect a nuclear attack, if they were ever so stupid to launch one?

I think that the media does a good job of making conservatives out to be warmongers and liberals out to be welfare-mongers. Special interests are always in play, and you must be careful not to be steered into one group or another.

Click here to see why Ron Paul has the only good national defense policy.

So what about Israel? I hear you say. Well what about Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu told us that they are capable of defending themselves.

Think about this: pulling our troops home, means that we have a strong force at home. We still have submarines and aircraft carriers that can circle the world, and we still have friendly alliances with other countries.

Wasn’t it Teddy Roosevelt who said ‘talk softly and carry a big stick’? We have a big stick, we have the most powerful army in the world, but swinging that big stick around constantly will only make us tired and wear us out. It costs billions of dollars to make war and it has warn our economy out.

We must go back to trade and commerce, and learn to get along with other nations no matter what their ambitions may be.

If another country were to be so bold as to attack us or one of our allies, would we not be in a stronger position to launch a counter attack from our home, than from our overstretched troops abroad?

Just look at the Falkland islands, Britain did a very good job taking that land back. And how many countries have invaded their territory since?

War cannot be sustained without a strong and functioning economy. This country is almost bankrupt. We cannot afford to police the world. Our economy is struggling right now, and our debt matches our total GDP for an entire year! How many candidates have a solid plan to fix this? How many candidates are bold enough to make the moves to fix it? As far as I see it; only one!

Eisenhower warned about the military industrial banking complex in his farewell address to the nation:

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.

Look at how the candidates are funded, look at what they talk about, look at how they are dangerously war mongering right now. And tell me his warning has not come true.

The Police State is already taking over

If you want a ball busting president like Newt Gingrich, remember that Adolf Hitler himself was considered a great leader and sought security for his country. Remember that Hitler endorsed the police state in the same way Newt currently is.

How would those of you who blog and speak freely about your current distaste of government; like to have the local militarized police force come knocking on your door and have you sent to a FEMA camp? With all the rising tensions in the world, and the ever more secular government, do you not think our current president or next president (other than Ron Paul) will sign an executive order to detain ‘troublemakers’. Think about all the bills that have been signed in just the last year alone that strip our constitutional rights away.

Oh but we need a strong candidate to beat Obama! I hear you say. Look, Newt, Mitt and Santoram are all special interest establishment politicians. They are all corrupt. They only have the backing of the right wing conservatives. Ron Paul has the military vote, he has the blue democrats vote, he has the independents vote, he has the tea party vote and he has the fiscal conservatives vote.

I suggest that during the republican primaries you vote for morality, vote for freedom, and vote for the constitution.

One person can make a difference. By reading sites like these, by finding out information not given to you by the mainstream media, you are already broadening your horizons. There are many people in this country right now who are hungry for information, hungry to hear the truth, and dying to get started on a path back toward liberty, but do not know where to turn.

By talking to a friend at work, or someone in your social group, who is similar minded to you, you can help show them what Ron Paul is really about, you can show them that he stands for liberty, and when they point out that he has a bad foreign policy, you can turn that argument around and tell them that he actually has the best one of all the candidates out there.

Many senior members of the military agree with Ron Paul on his strategy:

Click here to see why Ron Paul is the BEST national security candidate

Don’t allow yourselves to be divided and conquered by special interests. If you love freedom and independence; unite behind the one man who WILL RESTORE AMERICA NOW

Your vote matters, your opinions matter, your voice matters, talking to your friends and family, standing up for principles and having the courage to point out that the media is wrong and that your family should do their own research; all of this matters.

I have sat down with friends, family and co-workers and told them about Ron Paul, about my experiences in life, in what I’ve learned, and whenever they have presented me with a question I did not know how to answer, I went away and researched it, and told them what I found out the next time I saw them. Sometimes the discussions were heated, but I kept my cool, and asked them as many questions as possible as to why they felt a certain way. Once I told them what I had found out, they tended to listen more intently to be, and began to accept what I told them. The vast majority of them now accept that Ron Paul is the only viable candidate for office of the president, and all are doing their best to spread the word.

We have five full months of campaigning yet to do, and you can reach many people in that time. The battle for freedom is only lost when good men do nothing.

Now the ball is in your court, now you must choose your future.

UPDATE: I just saw this video which really puts things into perspective: